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TURN TURN TURN...for every season

Steve Bohannon — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 02:40:00 GMT

This looks like the end of down for this year.... see the WAVES?
Those are the psychological crowd emotions.... predictable... now we should see a turn around in the crowd psychology... despite the fact you the tax payer is on the hook for a possible $7 trillion!

After the predictable psychology plays out the THREE waves up then the next push will start down... FIVE waves down.... One WAVE down... Then the next wave up (2)... then the next one down(3)... one more up(4)... then a long wave push down(5)... maybe it stops at 4000.

So when we get close to the line I would move my money back into cash.

EVERYONE FEELS LIKE THE WORST IS HERE.... this is evidenced by the outrageous actions by the government over the weekend, including the president elect saying the worst is yet to come...

All this talk and effort is evidence that from the top down people are negative... commercials on TV... your buddies at work...

So now that there is sufficient negativity in the CROWD you will see the turn up...

All the while we were headed south, losing 46% of the Dow people were holding onto HOPE that it would eventually turn around....

But hope was lost by the powers that be and they had to act... promising to give up half of the the US GDP to 'save' the economy...

Picture this:

You are a business man... your business has done very well for several years... maybe a decade... but you begin noticing that your customers are changing. Many people want your product but can't afford to pay cash for it... so they begin using a credit card to buy your product... and suddenly you have a super influx of customers because more and more of your customers have a credit card...

"Wow!" you think. You start ramp-ing up the supply... even using credit yourself to buy supplies to create your product so you can keep up with demand.

Then you notice that your customer base is depleting... that the customers that are left don't really have a credit card... So you decide to give them the product under the arrangement that they would pay you monthly till it was paid off. That was going well until you started noticing the last group you gave the product too stopped paying the monthly payment... then worse you notice you have run out of interested customers...

But you have, like half of your money tied up in 'floating' the last group of customers and they all begin to stop paying... you start taking loans out to keep your business open... hoping that the customers start paying... then you end up maxed out...

About to go under in an attempt to 'save' your business a third party with some sort of 'authority' goes to your first customers... the ones who paid with cash... and raids their bank account to pay for part of the last 'non-paying' group's bill... you feel pretty good... for awhile...

But the people who had the means and the responsibility to buy your product out right with cash... will never ever come back to your business...

and you are stuck with a group of customers that want your product but don't have the means nor the discipline and responsibility to buy...

Unless of course the 'authority' keeps raiding the bank account of the ones who do...

beans and cornbread

Steve Bohannon — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 14:12:29 GMT

beans and cornbread got in a fight... beans knocked cornbread out of sight...

You interested in owning a few banks... and car factories... and a bunch of houses?

of course you'll hold the risk... and will not get the profit... if there is any... sounds like a deal to me!

CLICK ME

Dow lost 5.8% for the week

Steve Bohannon — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 03:43:00 GMT

I am not sure if the 7552 is the 'new' bottom or if there is another push down to the 7200 marker... the former is right in the middle of the range we talked about on 11-20 but with the president elect saying that millions of jobs are at risk next year and the IMF Chief saying the worst is yet to come... does that give enough negativity to traders and fund managers to dump stocks next week?

If it does then we will have the capitulation needed for a counter trend push... which the EW dudes say will be a multi-week or possibly multi-month counter trend push to the upside... it will not be a TREND change but a counter trend push... the over all trend is still down and will be for years. we will see new 52 week highs but no NEW multi-year highs...

CLICK ME

7552.29 Slip Sliddin' Away

Steve Bohannon — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 04:06:35 GMT

Ok... 7552.29

Are we there or is there still pressure? Well nothing has changed in all the industries that support a robust economy... they are all contracting or collapsing...

Lots of selling today produced alot of Volume... in the Low of October there was high volume... and we had a few up days that followed... but we never recovered.

I count 9 new lows year to date... and zero new highs.

The crowd psychology is beginning to froth up around the crashing Markets... which should produce more down side pressure to culminate in an extreme escape from stocks that will really drop the market. Now for those of us who are still waiting to see the permanent turn in the market... there will soon be a gut wrenching fear that will drive us to join the dumping of our stocks... It will either be in the next few days... or maybe it will be at the next extreme push downward to the last time the DOW made an important top in the mid 90's... at 4,000.

The DOW... which, for our economy is the BEEF of the industries that support our economy... is down 46% from the top....we've never been HERE before...except in 1929... the Dow has lost 6,541 points from the top which is well over $12 Trillion! ... yes as much as the US GDP!!

Still not the 'told ya so' moment... I wouldn't say it anyway...

Steve Bohannon — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 05:31:40 GMT

The DOW just closed below the March 2003 low.... "Rats, if I had taken my money out of the market in 2007... I would still have it." says Warren Buffet under his breath.

This is not the bottom... I know, I know, I called a bottom in October... But there is too much pressure to the down side... so I repeat this is not the bottom... we will definitely see a new low below the intraday low of 7882.50 in October. It will be some where between 7200 and 7700... this of course is my Opinion... but it is also what the big shot Elliott Wavers say.

This, you know, is not the end.... the end is much further down.... but a new low this year is coming and new lows next year... and new lows the next year... with a few 52 week highs... we will see DOW 4000 in the coming years.. or maybe the coming year.

If you shorted the DOW in March.... you are golden.

Ya'll Getting Ready?

Steve Bohannon — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 04:26:40 GMT

CLICK ME <---- WHOA! too many reasons that add up to down.

Look at these:

Steve Bohannon — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 14:57:06 GMT

RUN ON MONEY... People are trying to get out of the FIAT Currency FAST

State governments are gonna collapse first...

9300

Steve Bohannon — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 05:38:42 GMT

Well I think I am goin' to call 9300 as the top....

No more 5 digit market for 10 years...

well I said it....

HOPE I AM WRONG

DOWN WE GO

Mon, 17 Nov 2008 03:42:25 GMT

if you are in cash you're good....

if you were in cash or cash equivalent since 1999 you MADE 31%.... yes MADE 31%... how is that when inflation is suppose to remove value from money?....

You must look at the value of the currency and it's buying power in an extreme credit inflation...(more extreme than the credit inflation of 1927-1929).

If your money was in the S&P 500, one of the broadest measures of the Market, you would have LOST 26%.... yes LOST 26%. The DOCTRINE is the Market always goes up over time... But we must measure the Market with true measure of value... Remember currency is not MONEY.... what does your currency buy?... how much money is your currency worth?

DEFLATION: Learn up on it now... then you'll be ahead of the HERD... cause they are gonna learn it the hard way...

CLICK ME

YOU'VE SEEN IT BEFORE... BUT HERE IT IS AGAIN... and yes I misspelled 'too'

Steve Bohannon — Sun, 16 Nov 2008 04:51:40 GMT

WOW in two days the DOW has SWUNG 1200 points! in cash yet?

Steve Bohannon — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 03:04:00 GMT

First Government Layoffs starting

Steve Bohannon — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 03:04:24 GMT

Postal service going to start laying off people... if a business loses $2bil a year... closing shop would be next... unless you have the power of the population that pays taxes to make up your short falls.... but that has to end soon... tax revenue is dropping and will drop drastically... and to pay all this bailout ballyhoo tax rates have to go up on everyone who pays taxes not just the 'rich'. CLICK ME

Freaks, Nut Cases, and Chicken Little

Steve Bohannon — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 04:37:19 GMT

Don't be a cow!

'you callin' me a hefer?!'

CLICK them links and giggle, wiggle, and tremble... What do you do with thought and ideas that counter the group psychology?

PETER SCHIFF AUG 2006   PETER SCHMETER! he's just a weirdo know it all!

Schiff says 2012   HOO HA! just abuncha HOO HA!

BOB PRECHTER OCT 2007... a year ago Crazy sky is falling ALARMIST!

Prechter's BLAH BLAH BLAH about that impossible DEFLATION 'theory' BEAN EATER

PRECHTER last JUNE... What a nut case!!! says that Deflation is coming! Freak! probably plays the BANJO or somethin'

Hummm Prechter Just got lucky....   just a co-inky-dink. right?

Nut? or Funny looking fella with funny looking hair and a CLEAR idea of the REAL situation?

ADVERTISING? yeah... but why is his right ear so small?

Just a sampling of the NUT cases who have called the current circumstances... based on REAL analysis... REAL research... REAL understanding based on CLEAR vision. Now hear me on this... just because someone goes agianst the popular doctrine and or popular trend DOES NOT make them someone to listen too... Look at what they are basing thier ideas on....

Have you HEARD of the HERD?

Steve Bohannon — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 04:17:00 GMT

The Non-Binding opinion on JAN 30, 2008 was to move your money out of stocks into cash/money market fund....

at that time the DOW was at 12,443.... today the DOW is at ..... 8,944...

The economy is going to collapse... a deflationary depression is coming... The most extreme situation you've ever been in is coming to your door step...

Well that is a real bummer...

Look.. the weirdos on the fringe that talk about worst case scenarios... they are almost always right... if they are talking from a clear rational understanding based on REAL observations and REAL analysis... read some of the books on my book list... they are not just running around saying the sky is falling just to say it... or even to sell books... they actually have something to say... and it is based on REAL information and REAL scenarios and REAL sane thinking... Crazy to follow the herd over the cliff... suppose a few of those cows were saying "don't jump! you can live and be OK!!... just don't follow the HERD over the Cliff."

Of course the cry for people to not jump over the cliff with the HERD... is a story we've heard before...

Matthew 7

13"Enter through the narrow gate. For wide is the gate and broad is the road that leads to destruction, and many enter through it. 14But small is the gate and narrow the road that leads to life, and only a few find it.

Jesus said that there is a mentality that is destined to draw people over the cliff... forget about your money and your earthly future... just make sure you are not on the WIDE road and don't follow the popular thinking that you have what it takes... that you are basically a good person and you can enter the Gate on your good behavior. No one gets in by being good...

John 3:3 <-- go find a Bible and read it.

as far as the economy goes... don't expect a real turn around till the 'group psychology' has played out the predictable patterns that the Elliott Wave Theory says it will... We are set for a depression and really NEED a depression to set the U.S. up for a NEW GREATEST GENERATION... a generation that is not about STUFF and STATUS but really about the spread of the Gospel so that the END can come... not until the GOSPEL is preached to all the NATIONS (people groups) will the END come.

Matthew 24:14 (Amplified Bible)

14And this good news of the kingdom (the Gospel) will be preached throughout the whole world as a testimony to all the nations, and then will come the end. Jesus.

CLICK ME <-- This sounds like we are close to the END...

STILL TORN

Steve Bohannon — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 05:22:48 GMT

I am still a bit torn between the Dow rising to 10,300-10,500 and the Dow going to 7200 before or at month end.

I am leaning at this point to the down rather than the up...

so.... if the Major Markets go to the south... then what does that mean for us a nation?

Ahhh man don't ask that!

If you have to know.... you are going to get to know your neighbors pretty good... "do you have some eggs?"

"No not today... hope too next Monday... do you have any powdered milk?"

" yes... a little but I really need a couple eggs..."

" come back on Monday and I'll trade you two eggs for some of your powdered milk"

"see you Monday..."

Look with a tax and spend government in a depressed economy will look kinda like this:

unemployment skyrockets to 30% and a third or more of the employers disappear... so tax revenue drops to an extreme... i mean extreme low... to the point the government... the largest employer... has to dump 30-40% of it's workers for the 'good of the country'... oh my, the all powerful and loving government will need to sacrifice some for the good of the whole. Humanity is more important than the individual human... don't you know?

Remember... the counterfeit to the obedient and functioning Kingdom is a dysfunctional, good intended, and ultimately false example humanistic/socialist utopia that never appears... beware the HOPE that does not include the maker of hope.

GET RICH!!! MAKE AS MUCH AS YOU CAN NOW!!! don't live rich... live low and simple and horde your cash till the time comes that we the people... the people of the Kingdom... are the place people turn for help and actually get it... then they will know... that there is a friend that they can count on... Jesus.

PEACE OUT

Well There Ya Have It....

Steve Bohannon — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 13:53:47 GMT

Romans 13

1Everyone must submit himself to the governing authorities, for there is no authority except that which God has established. The authorities that exist have been established by God. 2Consequently, he who rebels against the authority is rebelling against what God has instituted, and those who do so will bring judgment on themselves. 3For rulers hold no terror for those who do right, but for those who do wrong. Do you want to be free from fear of the one in authority? Then do what is right and he will commend you. 4For he is God's servant to do you good. But if you do wrong, be afraid, for he does not bear the sword for nothing. He is God's servant, an agent of wrath to bring punishment on the wrongdoer. 5Therefore, it is necessary to submit to the authorities, not only because of possible punishment but also because of conscience.

Proverbs 29:11-13

11 A fool gives full vent to his anger,
but a wise man keeps himself under control.

12 If a ruler listens to lies,
all his officials become wicked.

13 The poor man and the oppressor have this in common:
The LORD gives sight to the eyes of both.

Does God vote?

Steve Bohannon — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 03:10:00 GMT

Here is some things talked about at the meetin' Sunday mornin'

1 Timothy 6

6 But godliness actually is a means of great gain when accompanied by contentment.

7For we have brought nothing into the world, so we cannot take anything out of it either.

8If we have food and covering, with these we shall be content.

9But those who want to get rich fall into temptation and a snare and many foolish and harmful desires which plunge men into ruin and destruction.

being a godly person is a means to wealth... when contentment with what you already have is your consistent attitude.

Proverbs 29

7The righteous is concerned for the rights of the poor,
The wicked does not understand such concern.

Is the government righteous? I think it is the Church that is suppose to be responsible for the poor... but as a whole the American Church has abdicated it's responsibility for the poor... so the government then "takes care of the poor" by way of handout rather than a hand up. The Church... which is you and me... not some organization... The Church needs to be the hand up... to break the cycle of poverty and bring the poor out of bondage so they can join in and bring others out!

Great GAIN with contentment means we should have more than enough to help the poor out of poverty as a choice of obeying GOD... rather than being compelled by a government robbing your pocket and spending your money on systems that perpetuate poverty.

2 Chronicles 7

13 If I shut up the heavens so that there is no rain, or if I command the locust to devour the land, or if I send pestilence among My people, 14and My people who are called by My name humble themselves and pray and seek My face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, will forgive their sin and will heal their land.

Is it judgment time? Are we at the point we need a locust to devour the land... for the rain to stop... for our way of life to be purged so that we respond to the King regarding His concerns for the earth?

Psalm 139

13 For You formed my inward parts;
         You wove me in my mother's womb.
    14 I will give thanks to You, for I am fearfully and wonderfully made;
         Wonderful are Your works,
         And my soul knows it very well.
    15 My frame was not hidden from You,
         When I was made in secret,
         And skillfully wrought in the depths of the earth;
    16 Your eyes have seen my unformed substance;
         And in Your book were all written
         The days that were ordained for me,
         When as yet there was not one of them.

Jeremiah 1

5"Before I formed you in the womb I knew you,
         And before you were born I consecrated you;
         I have appointed you a prophet to the nations."

Luke 1

41 When Elizabeth heard Mary's greeting, the baby leaped in her womb; and Elizabeth was filled with the Holy Spirit.

So is God Pro-Life?

To vote for a person in this country is a superficial popularity contest... we must, as members of America and citizens of the Kingdom, vote for the IDEAL as it matches with the King's heart.... where possible...

OHHHH NOOOO I WUZ RIGHT!!!! PRESSURE IS ON!

Steve Bohannon — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 22:36:57 GMT

9,325.01
+144.32 (1.57%)

That is scary!! I wish I was smart enough to know why.

The problem now arises: If Steevo's non-binding opinion was correct about the Dow at the end of Oct.... do I believe everything else?

Man... I am sorry... I wish I was wrong.... that way the pressure is off me and I could just say I missed it and you could just be entertained by my silliness...

I am now torn between two scenarios:

1. The Dow continues upward to hit my countertrend target of 10,300-10,500 then a follow up extreme crash to 7000-7200.

2. The Dow very early in November crashes to the 7200 level then turns around to 9100-9300 then peters out and begins the super slide to very very low lows... like 4000...

Them's my opinions and they sorta match the Elliott Wavers. They expect the crash from here comes sooner rather than later... but it's like 48% to 43% :)

Either way the economy is going to meltdown (or is melting down) and life is going to change...

This is because the underlying fundamentals of our economy are totally busted...

Once a economy based on real money we moved to a fiat currency with a real money backing... then to a fiat currency backed by goods and services... to a currency backed by debt... the cycle is now complete.... we will move back to a economy backed by real money... or maybe further back to a barter system first...

Economies that are based on a free market expand and contract... the expansion/contraction is present at every degree... minute by minute, decade by decade, to century by century... those who position themselves at the top to reap the benefit from the contraction then turn around at the bottom to reap the benefit from the expansion obviously have an upper hand. Who are these people? Contrarians.... how do they know when the bottoms and tops come? Not by emotions and not by investor advise but buy an objective system that looks technically at the Market.

HEY CHECK THIS OUT...

Steve Bohannon — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 02:14:18 GMT

here's something to read and ponder....

Click Me

SAME AS BEFORE

Steve Bohannon — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 22:12:22 GMT

8,990.96
-74.16 (-0.82%)

WOW.... on Oct 14th... the day after the largest one day increase in Dow History... the Dow lost 77 points.... then followed up with a 733 point decline on the 15th...

So is the pattern repeating? yes... or no... or maybe

The Elliott Wavers now have three scenarios that could happen... one is the Dow goes down sharply from here... the other two are up slightly to certain resistance points... then sharply down.

For those who have read up on Elliott Wave theory the Macro picture at this point is a confirmed Grand SuperCycle Bear Market that will likely not end till the Dow has retraced at least 89% from the top... which is some number between 400 and 1600. They expect this to unfold over the next 4 to 7 years...

Refresher course on Elliot Wave Theory: The wave principle posits that collective investor psychology (or crowd psychology) moves from optimism to pessimism and back again. These swings create patterns, as evidenced in the price movements of a market at every degree of trend.

From R.N. Elliott's essay, "The Basis of the Wave Principle,"

Practically all developments which result from (human) socialeconomic processes follow a law that causes them to repeat themselves in similar and constantly recurring series of waves of definite number and pattern. R. N. Elliott's model, in Nature’s Law: says that market prices alternate between five waves and three waves at all degrees within a trend, as the illustration shows. As these waves develop, the larger price patterns unfold in a self-similar fractal geometry. Within the dominant trend, waves 1, 3, and 5 are "motive" waves, and each motive wave itself subdivides in five waves. Waves 2 and 4 are "corrective" waves, and subdivide in three waves. In a bear market the dominant trend is downward, so the pattern is reversed—five waves down and three up. Motive waves always move with the trend, while corrective waves move opposite it.

The principle behind this look at the market is that it takes out the wishful thinking and dread... because the presence of the waves are so consistant... even from the beginning of a recorded market like the Tulip trade in the 900's... there is confidence in the theory and therefore is more trustworthy than emotion... not fullproof mindyou but more trustworthy than the 'hunch' system.

everything above this line is OPINION
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now all that said... TRUST IN THE LORD with all your heart and He will give you His insight and His mind... and He knows already the final outcome... He is there waiting on us and is here with us wanting to take us there...